When was Gauke: The lesson of the local elections—more street, less hall?

By Friday, we could all make early

assessments of the numerous elections held on Thursday, even though many of the results had still to be announced. I surely had a go.

My initial thoughts were that it was a very bad set of results for the Conservatives, implying that a heavy general election defeat was on the way, but that Tory MPs were unlikely to attempt to remove Rishi Sunak; holding second place in Blackpool South and Ben Houchen retaining the Tees Valley mayoralty had ensured that.

Saturday provided more good news for the Blues, as Ipswich Town were promoted. However, for the Conservatives, the news was bleak. Andy Street just failed.

According to Rawlings and Thrasher’s analysis, Labour’s seven-point lead in the national share of the vote is insufficient to secure a parliamentary majority. However, there are valid reasons to be skeptical of this.

 

Labour appears to be performing well where they need to, the “others” (23%) will be squeezed and are generally left of center (the Greens did well), and national polls normally provide a better indicator of public opinion. There may be a lack of enthusiasm for Labour, but this does not appear to prevent them from securing a large majority.

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